ibusinesslines.com December 14, 2018

NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook

19 October 2018, 08:25 | Justin Tyler

"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter", said Mike Halpert, who is the deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"That does not mean that below average temperatures can not occur", Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement. The three-month weather outlook in the Jackson Hole area calls for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation December through February.

A weak El Niño, described by NOAA as a warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean, is likely to occur this winter, which may contribute to increased precipitation in the southern United States and parts of the East Coast, according to NOAA.

Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, of the private company Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses different indicators to predict winter for the National Science Foundation.

Kentucky has equal chances for both above and below average temperatures according to NOAA's outlook.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook seems to at least indirectly contradict the one released by the 2019 Farmers' Almanac, an annual Lewiston-based publication which uses a mathematical and astronomical formula created in 1818 to come up with long-range forecasts. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the US can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

-Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic. The center has given much of the Southern United States, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Chesapeake Bay, a clear chance of a wetter winter, with pockets of drought around the Dakotas and the Great Lakes. "The maps show only the most likely category with higher probability indicating greater confidence".

For those looking for snowfall projections, you won't find those in NOAA's winter outlook.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance", the agency said.

NOAA also doesn't forecast specific snow ranges for the season as there's very little accuracy this far out. The next update will be posted on November 15.

In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

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