ibusinesslines.com November 14, 2018

Analyst Looks at Democrats' House, Senate Prospects

13 October 2018, 10:27 | Melissa Porter

Modal Trigger Trump speaks at Justice Brett Kavanaugh's ceremonial swearing-in. AP

President Donald Trump from left with Justice Brett Kavanaugh and retired Justice Anthony Kennedy speaks during the ceremonial swearing-in ceremony of Kavanaugh as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court

With the House and the Senate closing up shop until after the USA midterm elections, it seems fitting to take a look at what the makeup of the respective chambers will look like in 2019, and what that means for legislation. McConnell has all the leverage in the fight ― only two of his members are considered vulnerable this cycle, while Democrats count a half-dozen senators, most of whom wanted to go home and defend their seats. A GOP gain of two or three Senate seats this cycle will make it very hard for Democrats to win the Senate in 2020, when two vulnerable Democratic Senate seats are up - in Alabama and New Hampshire - and four vulnerable GOP seats are up - in Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. Throughout the Kavanaugh controversy we were told it would be deadly for Republicans among suburban women voters they need to avoid being blown out in November. Numerous nine toss-up seats were leaning Democrat.

Republican Sen. Ann Rivers, who is involved with her chamber's campaign efforts, said Republicans are "waxing up our red surfboard in case there is a blue wave". I didn't believe the polls because I think they have tremendous energy. Doug Ericksen's district and the open seat in the 26th, where Democrat Emily Randall and Republican Marty McClendon are vying to replace Angel. Surveys of likely voters are routinely more accurate barometers of Election Day outcomes than those of registered voters.

ANALYSIS | The Democrats' chances of netting at least two Senate seats always seemed like a long shot.

Republican Rep. J.T. Wilcox, who has been involved in fundraising for Republicans running in the House where more than a dozen seats are in play, said there's no question that he's anxious because "the national wind is blowing in our face".

"He looks at the numbers and sees that he is doing poorly everywhere but his base, so he decides for his own personal sanity and his own personal kind of ego sense that he says, 'All right, I'll just look at how well I am doing among my base and just talk to my base.' So that is part of the reason he is doing it".

While numerous judges were approved with bipartisan support, nearly half were confirmed on mostly party-line votes. "One month ago, 64 percent said they were very motivated - including 67 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Republicans, and 55 percent of independents".

Democratic Rep. Joe Fitzgibbon, heading up his caucus' campaign efforts, said with three competitive congressional races that overlap with several legislative districts there's "even more voter enthusiasm for showing up and casting their ballots".

But without any votes from Republicans - Democrats are powerless to stop the GOP from confirming judges.

"We have lifted the voices of millions of survivors of sexual assault".

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