ibusinesslines.com
ibusinesslines.com October 21, 2018


International Monetary Fund gives credit for reforms under Modi, projects India as fastest growing

10 October 2018, 08:51 | Kelvin Horton

The growth is being "driven by a pickup in non-oil economic activity and a projected increase in crude oil production in line" agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent producers, the International Monetary Fund said.

The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the USA and China in 2019. On Monday, the currency was trading at 128 per USA dollar on the open market and 124.20 in the official interbank rate.

It now projects the MENA region to grow by 2.0 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2019, 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent lower, respectively, than it forecast in April.

"An assessment by the State Bank of Pakistan and the finance ministry showed that Pakistan needed $11.7 billion to service its external debt in current fiscal year 2018-19". The IMF called for reforms in labour and land markets in the country, as well as improving the business climate.

Obstfeld said financial markets have overly emphasised short-term movements in China's currency, adding that the yuan has often quickly recovered from periods of volatility in recent years.

In the World Economic Outlook report released in July, the Bretton Wood institution had projected that Nigeria's economy would grow by 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019.

The IMF warned that the world faced a permanent hit to growth if the USA followed through on a threat to impose a 25% on all imported cars, and global tariffs hit business confidence, investment and borrowing costs. Inflation forecast for 2018 was 15 percent and for 2019 16.7 percent.

If projections are true, then India would regain the tag of fastest growing major economies of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage point in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.

Russian Federation was among the few energy-rich emerging market countries whose growth forecasts were bumped up.


The IMF chief economist said that while government officials have been moving to rein in China's credit expansion, it was understandable they would take steps to boost growth in the face of trade tensions with the U.S., and these have impacted short-term economic growth, affecting the yuan.

'To gauge the severity of the threats to growth, one must ask how governments could respond if risks are realised and widespread recession ensues.

"We have to find a way to get out of this hard situation", Umar said.

Foreign investors warmed to the news on IMF's possible involvement.

Trump has led the escalating trade war because of what he believes are bad policies he said have created an $800 billion US trade deficit.

In its report the International Monetary Fund said the tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the United States and China, weaker performances by eurozone countries, Japan and Britain all conspired to increase pressure on the global economy, while "the possible failure of Brexit negotiations poses another risk".

"Nigeria's growth, 1.9 percent this year; 2.3 next year".

The exercise assumes that U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on the remaining $267 billion worth of Chinese goods imports not already under punitive tariffs and China retaliates in kind.



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