ibusinesslines.com
ibusinesslines.com July 16, 2018


China's Currency Makes Round Trip as Trade War, Growth Concerns Whipsaw Market

06 July 2018, 05:16 | Kelvin Horton

China's Yuan Reverses Course, Rises Against Dollar

China's Currency Makes Round Trip as Trade War, Growth Concerns Whipsaw Market

The onshore yuan opened at 6.6365 per dollar, after hitting 11 month low of 6.7294 on Tuesday.

China remains at the epicentre of FX markets, and while yesterdays price action was fast and decisively USDCNH lower, market conditions ahead of the 4th of July and Friday NFP combined with the start of U.S.

"U$3 ltimately, the proof will be in the pudding [on foreign investments] and in the meantime, there is still no sign of the US and China restarting trade negotiations ahead of the July 6 start date for tariffs".

People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said in an interview with the China Securities Journal, posted on the bank's website, that China will keep the yuan's exchange rate "basically stable" at a reasonable level and continually deepen the market-oriented exchange rate reform, as the country's financial risks are largely controllable under a sound economic outlook. He assured that China's fundamental were good and cross-border capital flows were generally balanced.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., July 2, 2018.

There had also been reports of suspected intervention, with some major Chinese banks selling the dollar after the yuan slid past 6.70 per dollar in the swaps market.

The currency traded overseas gained almost 0.4%.

The currency hit to an eleventh month low today after it fell almost 1% against the USA dollar in early trading, and recovered to gain 0.3%.


Friday's monthly payrolls data should show labor markets remain tight, keeping the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy tightening on track.

Elsewhere the Australian dollar took heart from solid domestic retail sales data and edged up to $0.7403, moving away from an 18-month trough around $0.7311.

That helped MSCI's world index to rise 0.25 percent, inching further off 2-1/2 month lows hit last week.

Oil prices bounced back in early Asian trade on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising 0.41 percent to $77.30 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 0.32 percent to $73.94 a barrel. Oil is one of Canada's major exports.

The Mexican peso rose sharply on Tuesday after Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the newly elected president, sought to soothe investors - magnifying a global bounce in emerging market assets.

Obrador, who cruised to victory at the weekend as the first leftist elected president since one-party rule ended in 2000, has worked to dispel fears he might be averse to private investment when he takes office on December 1. Despite reassurances from the PBoC governor not to use the yuan as a weapon in any trade dispute but indeed the markets remain very bearish China, and well over and above trade tensions, as waning growth momentum has contributed to diverging economic indicators versus the U.S. suggesting Tuesday's interventions could be little more than a short-term reprieve.

The peso firmed 2.6 percent overnight, by far the biggest gainer among Latin American currencies, as positive sentiment on Mexico helped magnify an emerging markets rally.



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