ibusinesslines.com August 21, 2018

Oil hits highest since Nov 2014 as Brent edges closer to $80

17 May 2018, 05:58 | Kelvin Horton

OPEC compliance reaches record 172%

Oil hits high

Capital expenditures in non-OPEC grew by only two percent in 2017, and are still 42 percent below 2014.

For the fifth straight month, OPEC in March set a fresh record for complying with its agreed oil-production cuts, with the goal of re-balancing the market finally in sight. Spot crude prices are at their steepest discounts to futures prices in years due to weak demand from refiners in China and a backlog of cargoes in Europe.

"Easy access to capital, cheap money and production hedging contributed to this trend", researchers said.

US crude is trading at a hefty discount to Brent, the worldwide marker, thanks to sharp rises in USA production to 10.7 million bpd, which has left the American domestic oil market well supplied.

Judging by the many new oil bulls popping up in media these days, you'd think that everyone would be reading Energy and Capital. The feedback/reflexivity here (that results from a price maker/entity with market power using spreads/inventory as a proxy for supply-demand balance, and market participants forming expectations about how the price maker will behave) greatly complicates things.

We believe that Europe, Russia and China would continue the deal with Iran, leaving United States isolated and weakened in handling challenges like North Korea.

Rising prices, however, have another effect: They call forth efforts to find more supplies. Canada, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Kazakhstan also are anticipated to grow. With Russia producing almost 11 million barrels per day of oil, that means an additional $110 million per day or $40 billion a year in additional revenue. Domestic output will average 10.72 MMbpd this year, still above the 1970 record of 9.6 MMbpd and raised from a 10.69-MMbpd forecast in an April report.

After several years of propping up oil prices, producer countries must now debate whether to try to put a lid on them.

Crude sticking to highs as USA withdrawal from Iran program continues to boost prices.

Rosneft's oil and gas condensate output in the first quarter was down 1.2 percent year on year because of the global supply pact with OPEC, the company said. MOMR predicted total spending by non-OPEC operators this year would increase by about 3.5% from 2017 and by 8.1% in 2019. The generally robust global economy has increased appetites for energy. So far, this has taken some 700,000 bpd out of global markets, the news source reports, with no sign of the trend slowing and no quick fix, even if a revolution overthrows the Maduro regime. These include imposing certain tariffs on steel and aluminum products and trade negotiations with China.

In last week's report on the US trade balance, the Census Bureau reported that the USA trade deficit with the rest of the world grew by about $23 billion compared with the year-ago period.

OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand growth this year but qualified it, noting that sanctions, tariffs, and the USA withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal point to rising uncertainty over the global economic growth momentum.

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