ibusinesslines.com
ibusinesslines.com November 20, 2017


Don't write oil's 'obituary', IEA says in long-term demand forecast

14 November 2017, 08:36 | Kelvin Horton

Crude oil is extracted from the Monterey Shale formation near Bakersfield CaliforniaAlamy

Crude oil is extracted from the Monterey Shale formation near Bakersfield California

And the IEA expects non-OPEC countries to boost output by 1.4 million barrels a day next year, doubling this year's production growth.

Oil prices have risen in recent months, after both Opec and non-Opec countries struck a landmark deal at the end of previous year to cut back production to combat a global oil glut.

The difference between supply and demand isn't as tight as "some would like", the IEA added.

The IEA also today released its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it said global oil demand will fall modestly due to the rise in electric cars.

IEA said it had cut its longer-term oil price projections from a year ago, partly because of the falling cost of both renewable and conventional sources of energy, the worldwide push to tackle climate change and improve air quality and the boom in U.S. shale oil and gas output.

But the oil market isn't tightening as quickly as once anticipated, the IEA said in its monthly oil-market report.


The benchmark report notes that with renewable energy technologies nipping at the heels of oil, natural gas and coal and a global push by policymakers to cut carbon emissions, juxtaposed with near-insatiable demand from a global population that will hit 9 billion within a few decades and the rise of the USA as the world's largest oil and gas producer, the energy sector is experiencing disruptive times. "This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a "new normal" for oil prices".

"While other major companies continue to maintain a presence in oil sands operations, it remains an open question whether the exit of these companies will impact prospects for oil sands development over the longer term", the IEA said.

Oil demand is now projected to rise by 1.5 mb/d in 2017 and by 1.3 mb/d in 2018, representing annual increases of 1.6 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

The IEA estimates that there will be 50 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from closer to 2 million now.

Total energy demand is expected to have grown by 30 percent by 2040 — and would be growing twice that without efforts to improve energy efficiencies.

The report from the Paris-based agency will come as grim news for officials attending global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, as they grapple with ways to contain carbon emissions. Indeed, the IEA also suggests that demand for oil will remain supported by lower prices, going forward.



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