ibusinesslines.com March 23, 2018

Global carbon emissions to rise 2% in 2017: scientists

13 November 2017, 06:24 | Justin Tyler

Exxon Mobil's refinery in Louisiana

Exxon Mobils refinery in Louisiana

The announcement comes as nations meet in Bonn, Germany, for the annual United Nations climate negotiations (COP23).

The rise follows a remarkable three-year period during which global CO₂ emissions barely grew, despite strong global economic growth. "This is very disappointing".

"With global Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2ºC let alone 1.5ºC", Le Quere added.

Land-use change emissions in 2017, on other hand, would be very similar to that in 2016, the scientists wrote in Nature Climate Change journal. This is a window into the future.

To stabilise our climate at well below 2℃ of global warming, the elusive peak in global emissions needs to be reached as soon as possible, before quickly setting into motion the great decline in emissions needed to reach zero net emissions by around 2050.

Scientists say global carbon pollution went up this year after three straight years when it didn't go up at all.

"The use of coal, the main fuel source in China, may rise by three per cent due to stronger growth in industrial production and lower hydropower generation due to less rainfall".

The report by the University of East Anglia points the finger at China, the largest emitter... "That's a real concern".

"The global economy is picking up slowly", said Robert Jackson, a co-author of the report and co-chair of Global Carbon Project.

The good news, according to environmental economist Frank Jotzo of the Australian National University, is that economic activity on average produces less carbon emissions than it used to.

From 2014 to 2016 man-made Carbon dioxide emission growth entered a hiatus, although the economy was, and still is, on an upward trend.

Most of this year's increase came from China.

These trends, and the resolute commitment of many countries to make the Paris Agreement a success, suggest that CO₂ emissions may not return to the high-growth rates experienced in the 2000s.

We believe society is unlikely to return to the high emissions growth rates of recent decades, given continued improvements in energy efficiency and rapid growth in low-carbon energies.

India's emissions are expected to grow at a relatively lesser pace than in the previous decade.

Flat emissions in recent years were particularly remarkable because they were accompanied by worldwide economic growth. The report found that declines in the US and Europe were smaller than previous years.

In India, emissions are projected to grow two per cent, with a range between 0.2 and 3.8 per cent this year, compared to six per cent annually averaged over the previous decade, due to significant government interventions in the economy (GDP up 6.7 per cent). Similarly, the European Union emissions are expected to decline by 0.2% in 2017 when this group of 28 nations would collectively record 2.3% increase in their GDP.

Other positive signs from our analysis include the 14% per year growth of global renewable energy (largely solar and wind) - albeit from a low base - and the fact that global coal consumption is still below its 2014 peak.

The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by a team of 77 scientists from 57 organisations around the world, brings together the most accurate information available each year about humanity's carbon output. It's a sign that the world is still far from achieving its goals to limit global warming.

"We must reverse this trend and start to accelerate toward a safe and prosperous world for all".

The rest of the world's emissions-representing 40 percent of the global total-are expected to increase by 2.3 percent.

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