ibusinesslines.com
ibusinesslines.com April 30, 2017


IMF raises 2017 global growth forecast to 3.5%

20 April 2017, 06:51 | Kelvin Horton

The pound up more than 0.4 per cent against the US dollar and 0.3 per cent on the euro

Pound hits February high against dollar following snap election call

The IMF also adjusted upward its prediction for the global economy to 3.5 percent in 2017, up 0.1 percent from its January forecast.

The organisation has retained India's growth forecast for FY18 at 7.2 per cent and FY19 at 7.7 per cent, well ahead of China that gets a forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY18. In 2016, the GDP shrunk by 3.6 percent, and the previous year by 3.8 percent.

For years after the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession ended, the global economy remained trapped in what International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde termed "the New Mediocre".

Russian Federation and Brazil, the two countries that suffered from the worldwide and domestic political difficulties fallout, have forecasted to see a lot of growth this year even if it's not that strong.

One of the biggest improvements to the outlook was for the United Kingdom, which is preparing to leave the EU.

Growth rates in most other countries in the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf are similarly projected to dip in 2017.

Saudi Arabia, the region's largest economy, is expected to growth 0.4% this year and 1.3% the next, against 1.4% in 2016.


On global economy, International Monetary Fund also said that overall public debt in advanced economies should stabilise in the medium term, while fiscal deterioration in emerging economies appeared at an end.

The IMF forecasts that growth will remain strong in China and many other commodity importers, with activity also projected to pick up "markedly" in emerging markets and developing economies. The outlook for next year was raised to 6.2% from 6%.

"There's no issue of additional measures for 2018, as the problem of the different forecasts has already been resolved since May 2016, as part of the first [program] review, with the law on the fiscal contingency mechanism", the sources said.

It said that that the economic projections for the UK "points to a more gradual materialisation than previously anticipated of the negative effects of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union".

For years after the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession ended, the global economy remained trapped in what the IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, termed "the New Mediocre".

According to the Fund, the financial market is buoyant and a "long-awaited" recovery in manufacturing and trade, with world growth projected to increase this year and the next. Mexico's projections were trimmed to 1.7% and 2%, respectively. The IMF believes euro zone growth will then slow to 1.6% in 2018. While there is a chance that growth will exceed expectations in the near term, significant down-side risks continue to cloud medium-term outlook, and may have intensified since the January forecast.



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